2017 NO2 projections data (2015 reference year)

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Projections for concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) across the UK in the years 2017 - 2030 inclusive, have been calculated as part of a Pollution Climate Mapping (PCM) model assessment for the development of the UK plan for tackling roadside nitrogen dioxide concentrations.

The baseline projections represent the projected concentrations assuming no further action beyond the air quality measures that were committed by the reference year (2015). In addition, the technical report accompanying the UK plan for tackling roadside nitrogen dioxide concentrations contains projections for two scenarios that represent the projected concentrations assuming additional measures are implemented, as outlined in the plan. These scenarios are as follows:

  • CAZ scenario: actions that are known to be possible. This primarily includes illustrative charging Clean Air Zones, but also incorporates updated Government Buying Standards.
  • CAZ plus additional actions scenario: additionally includes actions which may be possible but for which assessment is highly uncertain. This includes potential action on exceedances on roads that are not suitable for a CAZ and a Zero Emission Zone in London, in addition to the measures in the CAZ scenario.

The results for the base year and projected roadside NO2 concentrations for approximately 9,000 modelled road links may be downloaded in spreadsheet format via the following link:

The GIS shapefiles of the results for the base year and projected roadside NO2 concentrations for the modelled road links are available via the following links:

The annual mean NOx source apportionment for 2015 and the projected baseline situation are available via the following links:

The Streamlined Pollution Climate Mapping (SL-PCM) models (version 3.2.1) used to calculate the projected roadside NO2 concentrations for the CAZ scenario and CAZ plus additional actions scenario are available to download via the links below. Each SL-PCM model consists of two tools, an emissions tool and a concentrations tool. There is a dedicated SL-PCM model for each year from 2018 to 2030 inclusive:

The SL-PCM technical document is available here. Please note that this document describes an earlier version of the tool.