6 Development Of The Air Quality Forecasting Service
AEAT-3844
6.1 East Anglia Region
The forecasting service has been revised in consultation with DETR to include the new region of East Anglia.
6.2 Point Source Emission Episodes
We are investigating the possibility of using an empirical model to improve the reliability of the forecasting of episodes due to emissions from individual major point sources. The meteorological conditions that lead to this type of episode are well understood within commonly used dispersion models, so we are studying a range of point source episodes using dispersion models run with both measured and forecast meteorological data. A report describing this work and making recommendations for the forecasting service is being prepared.
6.3 Neural Network
We are reviewing the performance of the neural network model for forecasting SO2 in Belfast and NO2 in London. The model has been running since 16 October 1997.
6.4 Name Model
The 'Name Sulphur Model' is currently under development at the Meteorological Office with a view to testing its applicability for air pollution forecasting. The usefulness of this model within the UK air quality forecasting system will be assessed over a six month period once an operational version of the model running in forecast mode is made available by the Meteorological Office. It is hoped that this model will enable forecasters to predict more accurately high air pollution episodes which are the result of point source emissions.
6.5 Ozone Data Exchange
The European Environment Agency (EEA) have set up a Technical Working Group on Data exchange and Forecasting for Ozone episodes in Northwest Europe. This group is following up on the work of the Ministerial Conference on Tropospheric Ozone in Northwest Europe which was held in London in May 1996. This group has produced a report on ozone forecasting and data exchange in Northwest Europe (Topic Centre on Air Quality, 1997). Air quality scientists from NETCEN have represented the UK within this group and have been closely involved with the drafting of the report. We have also been active in drawing up a specification for a system of co-ordinated data exchange for ozone forecasting within Northwest Europe. A pilot data exchange system has been operational at NETCEN since the summer of 1997 and since April 1998 includes data from Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, United Kingdom, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. A Java based web page to display the ozone data on a map of Europe has also been developed and tested.
