6 Site Specific PM10 Projections for the 10 Year Plan

Site specific projections of PM10 concentrations in 2010 for the baseline and plan scenarios are listed in Table 8. Projections for the illustrative constant cost and combined scenarios are listed in Tables 9 and 10. These projections have been derived from 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999 monitoring data. Section 7 explains how these results have been drawn together to produce the estimates for the Background Paper. These tables also include projections based on the NAEI estimates of traffic emissions (Murrells, 2000), which are based on the 1997 National Road Traffic Forecasts (DETR, 1997), as discussed above. All concentrations are expressed in mgm-3, gravimetric, or equivalent, units. A blank entry in the tables indicates that projections have not been calculated because either the scenario is not applicable to a site in that area type (e.g. scenario D at Birmingham Centre), or monitoring data are not available for that year (e.g. 1996 at Marylebone Road).

Table 8. PM10 projections to 2010 based on emissions reductions by area type forecast in the Plan scenario (gravimetric units)

 

   

Annual mean (mgm-3)

Days above 50mgm-3

 

Area Type

Scenario

1996

1997

1998

1999

1996

1997

1998

1999

Birmingham Centre

4

NAEI

20.5

18.9

20.0

18.4

14

1

7

1

 

 

Baseline

20.7

19.1

20.3

18.6

14

1

7

1

 

 

Plan

20.5

18.9

20.0

18.4

14

1

7

1

 

 

Scenario A

20.5

18.9

20.0

18.4

13

1

7

1

 

 

Scenario B

20.5

18.9

20.0

18.4

14

1

7

1

 

 

Scenario C

20.5

18.9

20.0

18.4

14

1

7

1

 

 

Scenario D

               

 

 

Scenario E

20.5

19.0

20.1

18.5

14

1

7

1

Bristol Centre

6

NAEI

20.7

21.1

21.3

21.4

8

4

5

2

 

 

Baseline

21.1

21.6

21.6

21.7

8

4

5

2

 

 

Plan

20.9

21.4

21.5

21.5

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario A

20.9

21.3

21.4

21.5

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario B

20.9

21.4

21.5

21.5

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario C

20.9

21.4

21.5

21.5

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario D

20.9

21.4

21.5

21.6

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario E

20.9

21.4

21.5

21.6

8

4

5

2

Bury Roadside

5

NAEI

 

24.5

24.8

23.7

 

9

7

7

 

 

Baseline

 

24.8

25.0

23.8

 

9

7

7

 

 

Plan

 

24.3

24.6

23.5

 

9

7

7

 

 

Scenario A

 

24.3

24.6

23.5

 

9

7

7

 

 

Scenario B

 

24.3

24.6

23.5

 

9

7

7

 

 

Scenario C

 

24.3

24.6

23.5

 

9

7

7

 

 

Scenario D

 

24.4

24.7

23.5

 

9

7

7

 

 

Scenario E

 

24.4

24.7

23.5

 

9

7

7

Camden Roadside

2

NAEI

 

29.1

25.5

26.4

 

21

4

8

 

 

Baseline

 

29.3

25.7

26.5

 

22

4

8

 

 

Plan

 

28.4

25.0

25.8

 

20

4

7

Liverpool Centre

4

NAEI

21.8

21.7

22.1

20.8

11

7

5

1

 

 

Baseline

22.0

22.0

22.4

20.9

11

8

5

1

 

 

Plan

21.8

21.7

22.1

20.7

11

7

5

1

 

 

Scenario A

21.7

21.7

22.1

20.7

11

7

5

1

 

 

Scenario B

21.8

21.7

22.1

20.7

11

7

5

1

 

 

Scenario C

21.8

21.7

22.1

20.8

11

7

5

1

 

 

Scenario D

               

 

 

Scenario E

21.8

21.8

22.2

20.8

11

7

5

1

London Bloomsbury

1

NAEI

25.0

23.2

23.0

21.9

13

13

3

3

 

 

Baseline

25.0

23.3

23.0

22.0

13

13

3

3

 

 

Plan

24.4

22.5

22.4

21.4

12

11

3

3

Haringey Roadside

3

NAEI

 

23.2

22.0

22.1

 

10

6

2

 

 

Baseline

 

23.6

22.3

22.4

 

11

6

4

 

 

Plan

 

23.3

22.1

22.3

 

11

6

3

Manchester Piccadilly

4

NAEI

21.2

20.7

20.4

20.6

10

2

7

0

 

 

Baseline

21.4

21.0

20.6

20.8

10

2

8

0

 

 

Plan

21.1

20.7

20.3

20.6

10

2

7

0

 

 

Scenario A

21.1

20.7

20.3

20.6

10

2

7

0

 

 

Scenario B

21.2

20.7

20.3

20.6

10

2

7

0

 

 

Scenario C

21.2

20.7

20.4

20.6

10

2

7

0

 

 

Scenario D

               

 

 

Scenario E

21.2

20.8

20.4

20.7

10

2

7

0

Marylebone Road

1

NAEI

   

30.0

33.2

   

13

20

 

 

Baseline

   

30.0

33.2

   

13

21

 

 

Plan

   

28.5

31.3

   

12

19

Newcastle Centre

5

NAEI

18.5

18.8

18.3

16.9

9

0

2

3

 

 

Baseline

18.7

19.0

18.5

17.0

9

1

2

3

 

 

Plan

18.5

18.8

18.3

16.9

9

0

2

3

 

 

Scenario A

18.4

18.8

18.3

16.9

9

0

2

3

 

 

Scenario B

18.5

18.8

18.3

16.9

9

0

2

3

 

 

Scenario C

18.5

18.8

18.3

16.9

9

0

2

3

 

 

Scenario D

               

 

 

Scenario E

18.5

18.8

18.3

16.9

9

0

2

3

Rochester

11

NAEI

19.5

19.7

18.3

17.0

9

5

1

1

 

 

Baseline

19.5

19.6

18.3

17.0

9

5

1

1

 

 

Plan

19.5

19.6

18.3

17.0

9

5

1

1

Sutton Roadside

3

NAEI

 

21.6

21.0

20.7

 

8

3

0

 

 

Baseline

 

21.9

21.3

20.9

 

8

3

0

 

 

Plan

 

21.7

21.1

20.8

 

8

3

0


Table 9. PM10 projections to 2010 based on emissions reductions by area type forecast in the Constant motoring costs scenario (gravimetric units)

 

   

Annual mean (mgm-3)

Days above 50mgm-3

 

Area Type

Scenario

1996

1997

1998

1999

1996

1997

1998

1999

Birmingham Centre

4

NAEI

20.5

18.9

20.0

18.4

14

1

7

1

 

 

Baseline

20.7

19.1

20.3

18.6

14

1

7

1

 

 

Constant cost

20.4

18.9

19.9

18.3

13

1

7

1

 

 

Scenario A

20.4

18.8

19.9

18.3

13

1

7

1

 

 

Scenario B

20.4

18.9

19.9

18.3

13

1

7

1

 

 

Scenario C

20.5

18.9

20.0

18.4

13

1

7

1

 

 

Scenario D

 

 

Scenario E

20.5

18.9

20.0

18.4

14

1

7

1

Bristol Centre

6

NAEI

20.7

21.1

21.3

21.4

8

4

5

2

 

 

Baseline

21.1

21.6

21.6

21.7

8

4

5

2

 

 

Constant cost

20.8

21.3

21.4

21.5

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario A

20.7

21.2

21.3

21.4

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario B

20.8

21.3

21.4

21.5

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario C

20.8

21.3

21.4

21.5

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario D

20.8

21.3

21.4

21.5

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario E

20.9

21.3

21.4

21.5

8

4

5

2

Bury Roadside

5

NAEI

 

24.5

24.8

23.7

 

9

7

7

 

 

Baseline

 

24.8

25.0

23.8

 

9

7

7

 

 

Constant cost

 

24.1

24.5

23.4

 

9

6

6

 

 

Scenario A

 

24.1

24.5

23.4

 

9

6

6

 

 

Scenario B

 

24.1

24.5

23.4

 

9

6

6

 

 

Scenario C

 

24.2

24.5

23.4

 

9

7

7

 

 

Scenario D

 

24.2

24.5

23.4

 

9

7

7

 

 

Scenario E

 

24.2

24.5

23.4

 

9

7

7

Camden Roadside

2

NAEI

 

29.1

25.5

26.4

 

21

4

8

 

 

Baseline

 

29.3

25.7

26.5

 

22

4

8

 

 

Constant cost

 

28.2

24.9

25.6

 

19

4

7

Liverpool Centre

4

NAEI

21.8

21.7

22.1

20.8

11

7

5

1

 

 

Baseline

22.0

22.0

22.4

20.9

11

8

5

1

 

 

Constant cost

21.7

21.6

22.0

20.7

11

7

5

1

 

 

Scenario A

21.7

21.6

22.0

20.7

11

7

5

1

 

 

Scenario B

21.7

21.6

22.0

20.7

11

7

5

1

 

 

Scenario C

21.7

21.6

22.1

20.7

11

7

5

1

 

 

Scenario D

 

 

Scenario E

21.8

21.7

22.1

20.7

11

7

5

1

London Bloomsbury

1

NAEI

25.0

23.2

23.0

21.9

13

13

3

3

 

 

Baseline

25.0

23.3

23.0

22.0

13

13

3

3

 

 

Constant cost

24.3

22.4

22.4

21.3

12

10

3

3

Haringey Roadside

3

NAEI

 

23.2

22.0

22.1

 

10

6

2

 

 

Baseline

 

23.6

22.3

22.4

 

11

6

4

 

 

Constant cost

 

23.1

21.9

22.1

 

10

6

2

Manchester Piccadilly

4

NAEI

21.2

20.7

20.4

20.6

10

2

7

0

 

 

Baseline

21.4

21.0

20.6

20.8

10

2

8

0

 

 

Constant cost

21.1

20.6

20.3

20.6

9

2

7

0

 

 

Scenario A

21.1

20.6

20.3

20.6

9

2

7

0

 

 

Scenario B

21.1

20.6

20.3

20.6

9

2

7

0

 

 

Scenario C

21.1

20.7

20.3

20.6

9

2

7

0

 

 

Scenario D

 

 

Scenario E

21.2

20.7

20.3

20.6

10

2

7

0

Marylebone Road

1

NAEI

   

30.0

33.2

   

13

20

 

 

Baseline

   

30.0

33.2

   

13

21

 

 

Constant cost

   

28.3

31.0

   

12

18

Newcastle Centre

5

NAEI

18.5

18.8

18.3

16.9

9

0

2

3

 

 

Baseline

18.7

19.0

18.5

17.0

9

1

2

3

 

 

Constant cost

18.4

18.7

18.2

16.8

9

0

2

3

 

 

Scenario A

18.4

18.7

18.2

16.8

9

0

2

3

 

 

Scenario B

18.4

18.7

18.2

16.8

9

0

2

3

 

 

Scenario C

18.4

18.7

18.3

16.9

9

0

2

3

 

 

Scenario D

               

 

 

Scenario E

18.5

18.8

18.3

16.9

9

0

2

3

Rochester

11

NAEI

19.5

19.7

18.3

17.0

9

5

1

1

 

 

Baseline

19.5

19.6

18.3

17.0

9

5

1

1

 

 

Constant cost

19.5

19.6

18.3

17.0

9

5

1

1

Sutton Roadside

3

NAEI

 

21.6

21.0

20.7

 

8

3

0

 

 

Baseline

 

21.9

21.3

20.9

 

8

3

0

 

 

Constant cost

 

21.5

20.9

20.6

 

8

3

0


Table 10. PM10 projections to 2010 based on emissions reductions by area type forecast in the combined scenario (gravimetric units)

 

   

Annual mean (mgm-3)

Days above 50mgm-3

 

Area Type

Scenario

1996

1997

1998

1999

1996

1997

1998

1999

Birmingham Centre

4

NAEI

20.5

18.9

20.0

18.4

14

1

7

1

 

 

Baseline

20.7

19.1

20.3

18.6

14

1

7

1

 

 

Combined

20.4

18.9

19.9

18.3

13

1

7

1

 

 

Scenario A

20.4

18.8

19.9

18.3

13

1

7

1

 

 

Scenario B

20.4

18.9

19.9

18.3

13

1

7

1

 

 

Scenario C

20.5

18.9

20.0

18.4

13

1

7

1

 

 

Scenario D

 

 

Scenario E

20.5

18.9

20.0

18.4

13

1

7

1

Bristol Centre

6

NAEI

20.7

21.1

21.3

21.4

8

4

5

2

 

 

Baseline

21.1

21.6

21.6

21.7

8

4

5

2

 

 

Combined

20.8

21.3

21.4

21.5

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario A

20.7

21.2

21.3

21.4

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario B

20.8

21.3

21.4

21.5

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario C

20.8

21.3

21.4

21.5

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario D

20.8

21.3

21.4

21.5

8

4

5

2

 

 

Scenario E

20.9

21.3

21.4

21.5

8

4

5

2

Bury Roadside

5

NAEI

 

24.5

24.8

23.7

 

9

7

7

 

 

Baseline

 

24.8

25.0

23.8

 

9

7

7

 

 

Combined

 

24.0

24.4

23.3

 

9

6

6

 

 

Scenario A

 

24.0

24.4

23.3

 

9

6

6

 

 

Scenario B

 

24.0

24.4

23.3

 

9

6

6

 

 

Scenario C

 

24.1

24.4

23.3

 

9

6

6

 

 

Scenario D

 

 

 

 

Scenario E

 

24.1

24.4

23.3

 

9

6

6

Camden Roadside

2

NAEI

 

29.1

25.5

26.4

 

21

4

8

 

 

Baseline

 

29.3

25.7

26.5

 

22

4

8

 

 

Combined

 

28.2

24.9

25.6

 

19

4

7

Liverpool Centre

4

NAEI

21.8

21.7

22.1

20.8

11

7

5

1

 

 

Baseline

22.0

22.0

22.4

20.9

11

8

5

1

 

 

Combined

21.7

21.6

22.0

20.7

11

7

5

1

 

 

Scenario A

21.7

21.6

22.0

20.7

11

7

5

1

 

 

Scenario B

21.7

21.6

22.0

20.7

11

7

5

1

 

 

Scenario C

21.7

21.6

22.1

20.7

11

7

5

1

 

 

Scenario D

 

 

Scenario E

21.7

21.7

22.1

20.7

11

7

5

1

London Bloomsbury

1

NAEI

25.0

23.2

23.0

21.9

13

13

3

3

 

 

Baseline

25.0

23.3

23.0

22.0

13

13

3

3

 

 

Combined

24.3

22.4

22.4

21.3

12

10

3

3

Haringey Roadside

3

NAEI

 

23.2

22.0

22.1

 

10

6

2

 

 

Baseline

 

23.6

22.3

22.4

 

11

6

4

 

 

Combined

 

23.1

21.9

22.1

 

10

6

2

Manchester Piccadilly

4

NAEI

21.2

20.7

20.4

20.6

10

2

7

0

 

 

Baseline

21.4

21.0

20.6

20.8

10

2

8

0

 

 

Combined

21.1

20.6

20.3

20.6

9

2

7

0

 

 

Scenario A

21.1

20.6

20.3

20.6

9

2

7

0

 

 

Scenario B

21.1

20.6

20.3

20.6

9

2

7

0

 

 

Scenario C

21.1

20.7

20.3

20.6

9

2

7

0

 

 

Scenario D

 

 

Scenario E

18.4

18.8

18.3

16.9

9

0

2

3

Marylebone Road

1

NAEI

21.1

20.7

20.3

20.6

10

2

7

0

 

 

Baseline

   

30.0

33.2

   

13

21

 

 

Combined

   

28.3

31.0

   

12

18

Newcastle Centre

5

NAEI

18.5

18.8

18.3

16.9

9

0

2

3

 

 

Baseline

18.7

19.0

18.5

17.0

9

1

2

3

 

 

Combined

18.4

18.7

18.2

16.8

9

0

2

3

 

 

Scenario A

18.4

18.7

18.2

16.8

9

0

2

3

 

 

Scenario B

18.4

18.7

18.2

16.8

9

0

2

3

 

 

Scenario C

18.4

18.7

18.3

16.9

9

0

2

3

 

 

Scenario D

 

 

Scenario E

18.4

18.8

18.3

16.9

9

0

2

3

Rochester

11

NAEI

19.5

19.7

18.3

17.0

9

5

1

1

 

 

Baseline

19.5

19.6

18.3

17.0

9

5

1

1

 

 

Combined

19.5

19.6

18.3

17.0

9

5

1

1

Sutton Roadside

3

NAEI

 

21.6

21.0

20.7

 

8

3

0

 

 

Baseline

 

21.9

21.3

20.9

 

8

3

0

 

 

Combined

 

21.5

20.9

20.6

 

8

3

0

Chapter 5           Chapter 7

Report and site prepared by the National Environmental Technology Centre, part of AEA Technology, on behalf of the UK Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions