5 Site Specific NO2 Projections for the 10 Year Plan

Site specific projections of annual mean NOx and NO2 concentrations, in mgm-3, in 2010 for the baseline and plan scenarios are listed in Table 5. Projections for the illustrative constant cost and combined scenarios are listed in Tables 6 and 7. Projections have been derived from 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999 monitoring data. Section 7 explains how these results have been drawn together to produce the estimates for the Background Paper. These tables also include projections based on the NAEI estimates of traffic emissions (Murrells, 2000), which are based on the 1997 National Road Traffic Forecasts (DETR, 1997), as discussed above. A blank entry in the tables indicates that projections have not been calculated because either the scenario is not applicable to a site in that area type (e.g. scenario D at Birmingham Centre), or monitoring data are not available for that year (e.g. 1996 at Marylebone Road).

Table 5. NOx and NO2 projections to 2010 based on emissions reductions by
area type forecast in the Plan scenario

 

   

NOx Annual mean (mgm-3)

NO2 Annual mean (mgm-3)

 

Area Type

Scenario

1996

1997

1998

1999

1996

1997

1998

1999

Birmingham Centre

4

NAEI

43.1

45.3

44.6

39.8

29.4

30.3

30.0

28.1

 

 

Baseline

42.7

45.0

44.2

39.5

29.3

30.2

29.9

27.9

 

 

Plan

41.7

43.9

43.1

38.6

28.8

29.7

29.4

27.5

 

 

Scenario A

41.6

43.8

43.1

38.5

28.8

29.7

29.4

27.5

 

 

Scenario B

41.7

43.9

43.2

38.6

28.8

29.7

29.5

27.5

 

 

Scenario C

41.8

44.0

43.3

38.6

28.9

29.8

29.5

27.6

 

 

Scenario D

     

     

 

 

Scenario E

42.0

44.2

43.5

38.9

29.0

29.9

29.6

27.7

Bridge Place

1

NAEI

76.3

83.3

68.7

72.8

44.2

47.0

41.0

42.7

 

 

Baseline

77.0

84.1

69.3

73.5

44.5

47.3

41.3

43.0

 

 

Plan

73.7

80.5

66.4

70.3

43.1

45.8

40.1

41.7

Bristol Centre

6

NAEI

59.0

69.9

54.8

50.2

35.5

39.3

34.0

32.3

 

 

Baseline

57.6

68.2

53.5

49.0

35.0

38.8

33.5

31.8

 

 

Plan

56.6

67.1

52.6

48.2

34.7

38.4

33.2

31.5

 

 

Scenario A

56.3

66.6

52.3

47.9

34.5

38.2

33.1

31.4

 

 

Scenario B

56.5

66.9

52.5

48.1

34.6

38.3

33.1

31.4

 

 

Scenario C

56.7

67.1

52.7

48.3

34.7

38.4

33.2

31.5

 

 

Scenario D

56.7

67.2

52.7

48.3

34.7

38.4

33.2

31.5

 

 

Scenario E

56.9

67.4

52.9

48.4

34.8

38.5

33.3

31.6

Cromwell Road

1

NAEI

136.0

 

101.7

116.4

46.3

 

38.9

42.2

(Roadside)

 

Baseline

139.7

 

104.3

119.4

47.1

 

39.5

42.9

 

 

Plan

123.0

 

92.3

105.4

43.6

 

36.7

39.8

Haringey Roadside

3

NAEI

66.9

78.5

65.8

63.6

30.3

33.3

30.0

29.4

 

 

Baseline

64.5

75.5

63.4

61.3

29.6

32.6

29.3

28.7

 

 

Plan

62.1

72.6

61.1

59.1

28.9

31.8

28.7

28.1

Hull Centre

6

NAEI

55.3

52.8

52.3

49.7

34.2

33.2

33.0

32.1

 

 

Baseline

54.1

51.7

51.2

48.7

33.7

32.8

32.6

31.7

 

 

Plan

53.3

51.0

50.4

47.9

33.4

32.5

32.3

31.4

 

 

Scenario A

53.0

50.7

50.1

47.7

33.3

32.4

32.2

31.3

 

 

Scenario B

53.2

50.9

50.3

47.9

33.4

32.5

32.3

31.3

 

 

Scenario C

53.3

51.0

50.4

48.0

33.4

32.5

32.3

31.4

 

 

Scenario D

53.4

51.0

50.5

48.0

33.5

32.6

32.4

31.4

 

 

Scenario E

53.5

51.1

50.6

48.1

33.5

32.6

32.4

31.4

Leeds Centre

4

NAEI

58.8

68.4

59.3

54.1

35.4

38.8

35.6

33.7

 

 

Baseline

58.3

67.8

58.8

53.6

35.3

38.6

35.5

33.6

 

 

Plan

56.7

66.0

57.2

52.2

34.7

38.0

34.9

33.0

 

 

Scenario A

56.6

65.9

57.2

52.1

34.7

38.0

34.9

33.0

 

 

Scenario B

56.7

66.0

57.3

52.2

34.7

38.0

34.9

33.0

 

 

Scenario C

56.8

66.2

57.4

52.4

34.7

38.1

34.9

33.1

 

 

Scenario D

     

     

 

 

Scenario E

57.2

66.6

57.7

52.7

34.9

38.2

35.1

33.2

Liverpool Centre

4

NAEI

73.6

81.8

76.2

82.4

40.6

43.2

41.4

43.4

 

 

Baseline

73.5

81.6

76.0

82.2

40.5

43.2

41.4

43.3

 

 

Plan

72.9

81.0

75.4

81.5

40.3

43.0

41.2

43.1

 

 

Scenario A

72.9

80.9

75.4

81.5

40.3

42.9

41.2

43.1

 

 

Scenario B

72.9

81.0

75.4

81.5

40.3

43.0

41.2

43.1

 

 

Scenario C

72.9

81.0

75.5

81.6

40.4

43.0

41.2

43.2

 

 

Scenario D

     

     

 

 

Scenario E

73.1

81.2

75.6

81.7

40.4

43.0

41.2

43.2

Manchester Town Hall

4

NAEI

63.3

67.9

58.0

55.8

37.1

38.7

35.2

34.4

 

 

Baseline

63.0

67.6

57.7

55.6

36.9

38.6

35.1

34.3

 

 

Plan

62.0

66.6

56.8

54.7

36.6

38.2

34.7

34.0

 

 

Scenario A

61.9

66.5

56.8

54.6

36.6

38.2

34.7

33.9

 

 

Scenario B

62.0

66.6

56.9

54.7

36.6

38.2

34.7

34.0

 

 

Scenario C

62.1

66.7

56.9

54.8

36.6

38.2

34.8

34.0

 

 

Scenario D

     

     

 

 

Scenario E

62.3

66.9

57.1

55.0

36.7

38.3

34.8

34.1

Marylebone Road

1

NAEI

   

173.2

188.4

   

53.6

56.3

(Roadside)

 

Baseline

   

177.7

193.4

   

54.4

57.2

 

 

Plan

   

159.7

173.3

   

51.0

53.6

Sutton Roadside

3

NAEI

53.6

59.7

51.4

55.0

26.5

28.3

25.8

26.9

 

 

Baseline

51.5

57.3

49.4

52.8

25.9

27.6

25.2

26.3

 

 

Plan

49.4

54.9

47.4

50.7

25.3

26.9

24.6

25.6

Tower Hamlets

2

NAEI

121.4

124.3

111.4

114.1

43.3

43.9

41.1

41.7

(Roadside)

 

Baseline

122.2

125.2

112.2

114.9

43.5

44.1

41.3

41.9

 

 

Plan

107.5

110.1

99.0

101.3

40.2

40.8

38.3

38.8

West London

2

NAEI

69.3

81.9

65.1

67.7

39.1

43.2

37.7

38.6

 

 

Baseline

69.5

82.1

65.3

67.9

39.2

43.3

37.7

38.7

 

 

Plan

66.1

78.0

62.0

64.6

38.0

42.0

36.6

37.5

Table 6. NOx and NO2 projections to 2010 based on emissions reductions by area type forecast in the Constant motoring costs scenario

 

   

NOx Annual mean (mgm-3)

NO2 Annual mean (mgm-3)

 

Area Type

Scenario

1996

1997

1998

1999

1996

1997

1998

1999

Birmingham Centre

4

NAEI

43.1

45.3

44.6

39.8

29.4

30.3

30.0

28.1

 

 

Baseline

42.7

45.0

44.2

39.5

29.3

30.2

29.9

27.9

 

 

Constant cost

41.4

43.5

42.8

38.3

28.7

29.6

29.3

27.4

 

 

Scenario A

41.3

43.4

42.7

38.2

28.7

29.6

29.3

27.4

 

 

Scenario B

41.4

43.5

42.8

38.3

28.7

29.6

29.3

27.4

 

 

Scenario C

41.5

43.6

42.9

38.4

28.8

29.7

29.4

27.5

 

 

Scenario D

               

 

 

Scenario E

41.7

43.8

43.1

38.5

28.8

29.7

29.4

27.5

Bridge Place

1

NAEI

76.3

83.3

68.7

72.8

44.2

47.0

41.0

42.7

 

 

Baseline

77.0

84.1

69.3

73.5

44.5

47.3

41.3

43.0

 

 

Constant cost

72.8

79.4

65.5

69.4

42.7

45.4

39.7

41.3

Bristol Centre

6

NAEI

59.0

69.9

54.8

50.2

35.5

39.3

34.0

32.3

 

 

Baseline

57.6

68.2

53.5

49.0

35.0

38.8

33.5

31.8

 

 

Constant cost

55.9

66.2

52.0

47.6

34.4

38.1

32.9

31.2

 

 

Scenario A

55.3

65.5

51.4

47.1

34.2

37.8

32.7

31.0

 

 

Scenario B

55.9

66.2

51.9

47.6

34.4

38.1

32.9

31.2

 

 

Scenario C

56.0

66.3

52.0

47.7

34.4

38.1

32.9

31.3

 

 

Scenario D

56.0

66.4

52.1

47.7

34.4

38.1

33.0

31.3

 

 

Scenario E

56.2

66.5

52.2

47.8

34.5

38.2

33.0

31.3

Cromwell Road

1

NAEI

136.0

 

101.7

116.4

46.3

 

38.9

42.2

(Roadside)

 

Baseline

139.7

 

104.3

119.4

47.1

 

39.5

42.9

 

 

Constant cost

118.3

 

89.0

101.5

42.6

 

35.9

38.9

Haringey Roadside

3

NAEI

66.9

78.5

65.8

63.6

30.3

33.3

30.0

29.4

 

 

Baseline

64.5

75.5

63.4

61.3

29.6

32.6

29.3

28.7

 

 

Constant cost

58.8

68.6

57.9

56.0

28.0

30.7

27.8

27.2

Hull Centre

6

NAEI

55.3

52.8

52.3

49.7

34.2

33.2

33.0

32.1

 

 

Baseline

54.1

51.7

51.2

48.7

33.7

32.8

32.6

31.7

 

 

Constant cost

52.7

50.4

49.9

47.4

33.2

32.3

32.1

31.2

 

 

Scenario A

52.2

49.9

49.4

47.0

33.0

32.1

31.9

31.0

 

 

Scenario B

52.7

50.4

49.8

47.4

33.2

32.3

32.1

31.2

 

 

Scenario C

52.8

50.4

49.9

47.5

33.2

32.3

32.1

31.2

 

 

Scenario D

52.8

50.5

50.0

47.5

33.2

32.4

32.2

31.2

 

 

Scenario E

52.9

50.6

50.1

47.6

33.3

32.4

32.2

31.2

Leeds Centre

4

NAEI

58.8

68.4

59.3

54.1

35.4

38.8

35.6

33.7

 

 

Baseline

58.3

67.8

58.8

53.6

35.3

38.6

35.5

33.6

 

 

Constant cost

56.2

65.4

56.8

51.8

34.5

37.8

34.7

32.9

 

 

Scenario A

56.1

65.3

56.6

51.7

34.5

37.8

34.7

32.8

 

 

Scenario B

56.2

65.4

56.8

51.8

34.5

37.8

34.7

32.9

 

 

Scenario C

56.4

65.6

57.0

52.0

34.6

37.9

34.8

32.9

 

 

Scenario D

               

 

 

Scenario E

56.7

65.9

57.2

52.2

34.7

38.0

34.9

33.0

Liverpool Centre

4

NAEI

73.6

81.8

76.2

82.4

40.6

43.2

41.4

43.4

 

 

Baseline

73.5

81.6

76.0

82.2

40.5

43.2

41.4

43.3

 

 

Constant cost

72.7

80.8

75.3

81.3

40.3

42.9

41.1

43.1

 

 

Scenario A

72.7

80.7

75.2

81.3

40.3

42.9

41.1

43.1

 

 

Scenario B

72.7

80.8

75.3

81.3

40.3

42.9

41.1

43.1

 

 

Scenario C

72.8

80.8

75.3

81.4

40.3

42.9

41.1

43.1

 

 

Scenario D

               

 

 

Scenario E

72.9

80.9

75.4

81.5

40.3

43.0

41.2

43.1

Manchester Town Hall

4

NAEI

63.3

67.9

58.0

55.8

37.1

38.7

35.2

34.4

 

 

Baseline

63.0

67.6

57.7

55.6

36.9

38.6

35.1

34.3

 

 

Constant cost

61.7

66.2

56.6

54.4

36.5

38.1

34.6

33.9

 

 

Scenario A

61.6

66.2

56.5

54.4

36.5

38.1

34.6

33.8

 

 

Scenario B

61.7

66.3

56.6

54.4

36.5

38.1

34.6

33.9

 

 

Scenario C

61.8

66.4

56.7

54.5

36.5

38.1

34.7

33.9

 

 

Scenario D

               

 

 

Scenario E

62.0

66.5

56.8

54.7

36.6

38.2

34.7

33.9

Marylebone Road

1

NAEI

   

173.2

188.4

   

53.6

56.3

(Roadside)

 

Baseline

   

177.7

193.4

   

54.4

57.2

 

 

Constant cost

   

154.6

167.7

   

50.0

52.5

Sutton Roadside

3

NAEI

53.6

59.7

51.4

55.0

26.5

28.3

25.8

26.9

 

 

Baseline

51.5

57.3

49.4

52.8

25.9

27.6

25.2

26.3

 

 

Constant cost

46.6

51.7

44.7

47.7

24.4

25.9

23.8

24.7

Tower Hamlets

2

NAEI

121.4

124.3

111.4

114.1

43.3

43.9

41.1

41.7

(Roadside)

 

Baseline

122.2

125.2

112.2

114.9

43.5

44.1

41.3

41.9

 

 

Constant cost

102.7

105.1

94.6

96.8

39.2

39.7

37.3

37.8

West London

2

NAEI

69.3

81.9

65.1

67.7

39.1

43.2

37.7

38.6

 

 

Baseline

69.5

82.1

65.3

67.9

39.2

43.3

37.7

38.7

 

 

Constant cost

64.9

76.6

61.0

63.5

37.6

41.6

36.2

37.1


Table 7. NOx and NO2 projections to 2010 based on emissions reductions by area type forecast in the combined scenario

 

   

NOx Annual mean (mgm-3)

NO2 Annual mean (mgm-3)

 

Area Type

Scenario

1996

1997

1998

1999

1996

1997

1998

1999

Birmingham Centre

4

NAEI

43.1

45.3

44.6

39.8

29.4

30.3

30.0

28.1

 

 

Baseline

42.7

45.0

44.2

39.5

29.3

30.2

29.9

27.9

 

 

Combined

41.3

43.5

42.8

38.2

28.7

29.6

29.3

27.4

 

 

Scenario A

41.3

43.4

42.7

38.2

28.7

29.6

29.3

27.4

 

 

Scenario B

41.3

43.5

42.8

38.2

28.7

29.6

29.3

27.4

 

 

Scenario C

41.5

43.6

42.9

38.3

28.7

29.6

29.3

27.4

 

 

Scenario D

               

 

 

Scenario E

41.4

43.6

42.9

38.3

28.7

29.6

29.3

27.4

Bridge Place

1

NAEI

76.3

83.3

68.7

72.8

44.2

47.0

41.0

42.7

 

 

Baseline

77.0

84.1

69.3

73.5

44.5

47.3

41.3

43.0

 

 

Combined

72.8

79.4

65.5

69.4

42.7

45.4

39.7

41.3

Bristol Centre

6

NAEI

59.0

69.9

54.8

50.2

35.5

39.3

34.0

32.3

 

 

Baseline

57.6

68.2

53.5

49.0

35.0

38.8

33.5

31.8

 

 

Combined

55.9

66.2

51.9

47.6

34.4

38.1

32.9

31.2

 

 

Scenario A

55.3

65.5

51.5

47.1

34.2

37.8

32.7

31.1

 

 

Scenario B

55.8

66.1

51.9

47.5

34.4

38.0

32.9

31.2

 

 

Scenario C

56.0

66.3

52.0

47.7

34.4

38.1

32.9

31.3

 

 

Scenario D

56.0

66.3

52.0

47.7

34.4

38.1

32.9

31.3

 

 

Scenario E

55.9

66.3

52.0

47.6

34.4

38.1

32.9

31.3

Cromwell Road

1

NAEI

136.0

 

101.7

116.4

46.3

 

38.9

42.2

(Roadside)

 

Baseline

139.7

 

104.3

119.4

47.1

 

39.5

42.9

 

 

Combined

118.3

 

89.0

101.5

42.6

 

35.9

38.9

Haringey Roadside

3

NAEI

66.9

78.5

65.8

63.6

30.3

33.3

30.0

29.4

 

 

Baseline

64.5

75.5

63.4

61.3

29.6

32.6

29.3

28.7

 

 

Combined

58.8

68.6

57.9

56.0

28.0

30.7

27.8

27.2

Hull Centre

6

NAEI

55.3

52.8

52.3

49.7

34.2

33.2

33.0

32.1

 

 

Baseline

54.1

51.7

51.2

48.7

33.7

32.8

32.6

31.7

 

 

Combined

52.7

50.4

49.8

47.4

33.2

32.3

32.1

31.2

 

 

Scenario A

52.2

49.9

49.4

47.0

33.0

32.1

31.9

31.0

 

 

Scenario B

52.6

50.3

49.8

47.3

33.2

32.3

32.1

31.1

 

 

Scenario C

52.8

50.4

49.9

47.5

33.2

32.3

32.1

31.2

 

 

Scenario D

52.8

50.4

49.9

47.5

33.2

32.3

32.1

31.2

 

 

Scenario E

52.7

50.4

49.9

47.4

33.2

32.3

32.1

31.2

Leeds Centre

4

NAEI

58.8

68.4

59.3

54.1

35.4

38.8

35.6

33.7

 

 

Baseline

58.3

67.8

58.8

53.6

35.3

38.6

35.5

33.6

 

 

Combined

56.2

65.4

56.7

51.8

34.5

37.8

34.7

32.8

 

 

Scenario A

56.1

65.3

56.7

51.7

34.5

37.8

34.7

32.8

 

 

Scenario B

56.2

65.4

56.7

51.7

34.5

37.8

34.7

32.8

 

 

Scenario C

56.4

65.6

56.9

51.9

34.6

37.9

34.8

32.9

 

 

Scenario D

               

 

 

Scenario E

56.3

65.5

56.8

51.9

34.5

37.8

34.7

32.9

Liverpool Centre

4

NAEI

73.6

81.8

76.2

82.4

40.6

43.2

41.4

43.4

 

 

Baseline

73.5

81.6

76.0

82.2

40.5

43.2

41.4

43.3

 

 

Combined

72.7

80.8

75.2

81.3

40.3

42.9

41.1

43.1

 

 

Scenario A

72.7

80.7

75.2

81.3

40.3

42.9

41.1

43.1

 

 

Scenario B

72.7

80.8

75.2

81.3

40.3

42.9

41.1

43.1

 

 

Scenario C

72.8

80.8

75.3

81.4

40.3

42.9

41.1

43.1

 

 

Scenario D

               

 

 

Scenario E

72.7

80.8

75.3

81.4

40.3

42.9

41.1

43.1

Manchester Town Hall

4

NAEI

63.3

67.9

58.0

55.8

37.1

38.7

35.2

34.4

 

 

Baseline

63.0

67.6

57.7

55.6

36.9

38.6

35.1

34.3

 

 

Combined

61.7

66.2

56.6

54.4

36.5

38.1

34.6

33.8

 

 

Scenario A

61.6

66.2

56.5

54.4

36.5

38.1

34.6

33.8

 

 

Scenario B

61.7

66.2

56.5

54.4

36.5

38.1

34.6

33.8

 

 

Scenario C

61.8

66.3

56.7

54.5

36.5

38.1

34.7

33.9

 

 

Scenario D

               

 

 

Scenario E

61.7

66.3

56.6

54.5

36.5

38.1

34.7

33.9

Marylebone Road

1

NAEI

   

173.2

188.4

   

53.6

56.3

(Roadside)

 

Baseline

   

177.7

193.4

   

54.4

57.2

 

 

Combined

   

154.6

167.7

   

50.0

52.5

Sutton Roadside

3

NAEI

53.6

59.7

51.4

55.0

26.5

28.3

25.8

26.9

 

 

Baseline

51.5

57.3

49.4

52.8

25.9

27.6

25.2

26.3

 

 

Combined

46.6

51.7

44.7

47.7

24.4

25.9

23.8

24.7

Tower Hamlets

2

NAEI

121.4

124.3

111.4

114.1

43.3

43.9

41.1

41.7

(Roadside)

 

Baseline

122.2

125.2

112.2

114.9

43.5

44.1

41.3

41.9

 

 

Combined

102.7

105.1

94.6

96.8

39.2

39.7

37.3

37.8

West London

2

NAEI

69.3

81.9

65.1

67.7

39.1

43.2

37.7

38.6

 

 

Baseline

69.5

82.1

65.3

67.9

39.2

43.3

37.7

38.7

 

 

Combined

64.9

76.6

61.0

63.5

37.6

41.6

36.2

37.1



Chapter 4           Chapter 6

Report and site prepared by the National Environmental Technology Centre, part of AEA Technology, on behalf of the UK Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions