Chapter 5
Chapter 7
6 Site Specific PM10 Projections for the 10 Year Plan
Site specific projections of PM10 concentrations in
2010 for the baseline and plan scenarios are listed in Table 8. Projections
for the illustrative constant cost and combined scenarios are listed in Tables
9 and 10. These projections have been derived from 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999
monitoring data. Section 7 explains how these results have been drawn together
to produce the estimates for the Background Paper. These tables also include
projections based on the NAEI estimates of traffic emissions (Murrells, 2000),
which are based on the 1997 National Road Traffic Forecasts (DETR, 1997), as
discussed above. All concentrations are expressed in mgm-3,
gravimetric, or equivalent, units. A blank entry in the tables indicates that projections have not been calculated because either the scenario is not applicable to a site in that area type (e.g. scenario D at Birmingham Centre), or monitoring data are not available for that year (e.g. 1996 at Marylebone Road).
|
|
Annual mean ( mgm-3) |
Days above 50 mgm-3 | ||||||||
|
|
Area Type |
Scenario |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
|
Birmingham Centre |
4 |
NAEI |
20.5 |
18.9 |
20.0 |
18.4 |
14 |
1 |
7 |
1 |
|
|
Baseline |
20.7 |
19.1 |
20.3 |
18.6 |
14 |
1 |
7 |
1 | |
|
|
Plan |
20.5 |
18.9 |
20.0 |
18.4 |
14 |
1 |
7 |
1 | |
|
|
Scenario A |
20.5 |
18.9 |
20.0 |
18.4 |
13 |
1 |
7 |
1 | |
|
|
Scenario B |
20.5 |
18.9 |
20.0 |
18.4 |
14 |
1 |
7 |
1 | |
|
|
Scenario C |
20.5 |
18.9 |
20.0 |
18.4 |
14 |
1 |
7 |
1 | |
|
|
Scenario D |
|||||||||
|
|
Scenario E |
20.5 |
19.0 |
20.1 |
18.5 |
14 |
1 |
7 |
1 | |
|
Bristol Centre |
6 |
NAEI |
20.7 |
21.1 |
21.3 |
21.4 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
|
|
Baseline |
21.1 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
21.7 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
2 | |
|
|
Plan |
20.9 |
21.4 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
2 | |
|
|
Scenario A |
20.9 |
21.3 |
21.4 |
21.5 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
2 | |
|
|
Scenario B |
20.9 |
21.4 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
2 | |
|
|
Scenario C |
20.9 |
21.4 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
2 | |
|
|
Scenario D |
20.9 |
21.4 |
21.5 |
21.6 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
2 | |
|
|
Scenario E |
20.9 |
21.4 |
21.5 |
21.6 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
2 | |
|
Bury Roadside |
5 |
NAEI |
24.5 |
24.8 |
23.7 |
9 |
7 |
7 | ||
|
|
Baseline |
24.8 |
25.0 |
23.8 |
9 |
7 |
7 | |||
|
|
Plan |
24.3 |
24.6 |
23.5 |
9 |
7 |
7 | |||
|
|
Scenario A |
24.3 |
24.6 |
23.5 |
9 |
7 |
7 | |||
|
|
Scenario B |
24.3 |
24.6 |
23.5 |
9 |
7 |
7 | |||
|
|
Scenario C |
24.3 |
24.6 |
23.5 |
9 |
7 |
7 | |||
|
|
Scenario D |
24.4 |
24.7 |
23.5 |
9 |
7 |
7 | |||
|
|
Scenario E |
24.4 |
24.7 |
23.5 |
9 |
7 |
7 | |||
|
Camden Roadside |
2 |
NAEI |
29.1 |
25.5 |
26.4 |
21 |
4 |
8 | ||
|
|
Baseline |
29.3 |
25.7 |
26.5 |
22 |
4 |
8 | |||
|
|
Plan |
28.4 |
25.0 |
25.8 |
20 |
4 |
7 | |||
|
Liverpool Centre |
4 |
NAEI |
21.8 |
21.7 |
22.1 |
20.8 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
Baseline |
22.0 |
22.0 |
22.4 |
20.9 |
11 |
8 |
5 |
1 | |
|
|
Plan |
21.8 |
21.7 |
22.1 |
20.7 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
1 | |
|
|
Scenario A |
21.7 |
21.7 |
22.1 |
20.7 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
1 | |
|
|
Scenario B |
21.8 |
21.7 |
22.1 |
20.7 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
1 | |
|
|
Scenario C |
21.8 |
21.7 |
22.1 |
20.8 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
1 | |
|
|
Scenario D |
|||||||||
|
|
Scenario E |
21.8 |
21.8 |
22.2 |
20.8 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
1 | |
|
London Bloomsbury |
1 |
NAEI |
25.0 |
23.2 |
23.0 |
21.9 |
13 |
13 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
Baseline |
25.0 |
23.3 |
23.0 |
22.0 |
13 |
13 |
3 |
3 | |
|
|
Plan |
24.4 |
22.5 |
22.4 |
21.4 |
12 |
11 |
3 |
3 | |
|
Haringey Roadside |
3 |
NAEI |
23.2 |
22.0 |
22.1 |
10 |
6 |
2 | ||
|
|
Baseline |
23.6 |
22.3 |
22.4 |
11 |
6 |
4 | |||
|
|
Plan |
23.3 |
22.1 |
22.3 |
11 |
6 |
3 | |||
|
Manchester Piccadilly |
4 |
NAEI |
21.2 |
20.7 |
20.4 |
20.6 |
10 |
2 |
7 |
0 |
|
|
Baseline |
21.4 |
21.0 |
20.6 |
20.8 |
10 |
2 |
8 |
0 | |
|
|
Plan |
21.1 |
20.7 |
20.3 |
20.6 |
10 |
2 |
7 |
0 | |
|
|
Scenario A |
21.1 |
20.7 |
20.3 |
20.6 |
10 |
2 |
7 |
0 | |
|
|
Scenario B |
21.2 |
20.7 |
20.3 |
20.6 |
10 |
2 |
7 |
0 | |
|
|
Scenario C |
21.2 |
20.7 |
20.4 |
20.6 |
10 |
2 |
7 |
0 | |
|
|
Scenario D |
|||||||||
|
|
Scenario E |
21.2 |
20.8 |
20.4 |
20.7 |
10 |
2 |
7 |
0 | |
|
Marylebone Road |
1 |
NAEI |
30.0 |
33.2 |
13 |
20 | ||||
|
|
Baseline |
30.0 |
33.2 |
13 |
21 | |||||
|
|
Plan |
28.5 |
31.3 |
12 |
19 | |||||
|
Newcastle Centre |
5 |
NAEI |
18.5 |
18.8 |
18.3 |
16.9 |
9 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
Baseline |
18.7 |
19.0 |
18.5 |
17.0 |
9 |
1 |
2 |
3 | |
|
|
Plan |
18.5 |
18.8 |
18.3 |
16.9 |
9 |
0 |
2 |
3 | |
|
|
Scenario A |
18.4 |
18.8 |
18.3 |
16.9 |
9 |
0 |
2 |
3 | |
|
|
Scenario B |
18.5 |
18.8 |
18.3 |
16.9 |
9 |
0 |
2 |
3 | |
|
|
Scenario C |
18.5 |
18.8 |
18.3 |
16.9 |
9 |
0 |
2 |
3 | |
|
|
Scenario D |
|||||||||
|
|
Scenario E |
18.5 |
18.8 |
18.3 |
16.9 |
9 |
0 |
2 |
3 | |
|
Rochester |
11 |
NAEI |
19.5 |
19.7 |
18.3 |
17.0 |
9 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Baseline |
19.5 |
19.6 |
18.3 |
17.0 |
9 |
5 |
1 |
1 | |
|
|
Plan |
19.5 |
19.6 |
18.3 |
17.0 |
9 |
5 |
1 |
1 | |
|
Sutton Roadside |
3 |
NAEI |
21.6 |
21.0 |
20.7 |
8 |
3 |
0 | ||
|
|
Baseline |
21.9 |
21.3 |
20.9 |
8 |
3 |
0 | |||
|
|
Plan |
21.7 |
21.1 |
20.8 |
8 |
3 |
0
| |||
Annual mean ( Days above 50 Area Type Scenario 1996 1997 1998 1999 1996 1997 1998 1999
Birmingham Centre 4 NAEI 20.5 18.9 20.0 18.4 14 1 7 1
Baseline 20.7 19.1 20.3 18.6 14 1 7 1
Constant cost 20.4 18.9 19.9 18.3 13 1 7 1
Scenario A 20.4 18.8 19.9 18.3 13 1 7 1
Scenario B 20.4 18.9 19.9 18.3 13 1 7 1
Scenario C 20.5 18.9 20.0 18.4 13 1 7 1
Scenario D
Scenario E 20.5 18.9 20.0 18.4 14 1 7 1
Bristol Centre 6 NAEI 20.7 21.1 21.3 21.4 8 4 5 2
Baseline 21.1 21.6 21.6 21.7 8 4 5 2
Constant cost 20.8 21.3 21.4 21.5 8 4 5 2
Scenario A 20.7 21.2 21.3 21.4 8 4 5 2
Scenario B 20.8 21.3 21.4 21.5 8 4 5 2
Scenario C 20.8 21.3 21.4 21.5 8 4 5 2
Scenario D 20.8 21.3 21.4 21.5 8 4 5 2
Scenario E 20.9 21.3 21.4 21.5 8 4 5 2
Bury Roadside 5 NAEI 24.5 24.8 23.7 9 7 7
Baseline 24.8 25.0 23.8 9 7 7
Constant cost 24.1 24.5 23.4 9 6 6
Scenario A 24.1 24.5 23.4 9 6 6
Scenario B 24.1 24.5 23.4 9 6 6
Scenario C 24.2 24.5 23.4 9 7 7
Scenario D 24.2 24.5 23.4 9 7 7
Scenario E 24.2 24.5 23.4 9 7 7
Camden Roadside 2 NAEI 29.1 25.5 26.4 21 4 8
Baseline 29.3 25.7 26.5 22 4 8
Constant cost 28.2 24.9 25.6 19 4 7
Liverpool Centre 4 NAEI 21.8 21.7 22.1 20.8 11 7 5 1
Baseline 22.0 22.0 22.4 20.9 11 8 5 1
Constant cost 21.7 21.6 22.0 20.7 11 7 5 1
Scenario A 21.7 21.6 22.0 20.7 11 7 5 1
Scenario B 21.7 21.6 22.0 20.7 11 7 5 1
Scenario C 21.7 21.6 22.1 20.7 11 7 5 1
Scenario D
Scenario E 21.8 21.7 22.1 20.7 11 7 5 1
London Bloomsbury 1 NAEI 25.0 23.2 23.0 21.9 13 13 3 3
Baseline 25.0 23.3 23.0 22.0 13 13 3 3
Constant cost 24.3 22.4 22.4 21.3 12 10 3 3
Haringey Roadside 3 NAEI 23.2 22.0 22.1 10 6 2
Baseline 23.6 22.3 22.4 11 6 4
Constant cost 23.1 21.9 22.1 10 6 2
Manchester Piccadilly 4 NAEI 21.2 20.7 20.4 20.6 10 2 7 0
Baseline 21.4 21.0 20.6 20.8 10 2 8 0
Constant cost 21.1 20.6 20.3 20.6 9 2 7 0
Scenario A 21.1 20.6 20.3 20.6 9 2 7 0
Scenario B 21.1 20.6 20.3 20.6 9 2 7 0
Scenario C 21.1 20.7 20.3 20.6 9 2 7 0
Scenario D
Scenario E 21.2 20.7 20.3 20.6 10 2 7 0
Marylebone Road 1 NAEI 30.0 33.2 13 20
Baseline 30.0 33.2 13 21
Constant cost 28.3 31.0 12 18
Newcastle Centre 5 NAEI 18.5 18.8 18.3 16.9 9 0 2 3
Baseline 18.7 19.0 18.5 17.0 9 1 2 3
Constant cost 18.4 18.7 18.2 16.8 9 0 2 3
Scenario A 18.4 18.7 18.2 16.8 9 0 2 3
Scenario B 18.4 18.7 18.2 16.8 9 0 2 3
Scenario C 18.4 18.7 18.3 16.9 9 0 2 3
Scenario D Scenario E 18.5 18.8 18.3 16.9 9 0 2 3
Rochester 11 NAEI 19.5 19.7 18.3 17.0 9 5 1 1
Baseline 19.5 19.6 18.3 17.0 9 5 1 1
Constant cost 19.5 19.6 18.3 17.0 9 5 1 1
Sutton Roadside 3 NAEI 21.6 21.0 20.7 8 3 0
Baseline 21.9 21.3 20.9 8 3 0
Constant cost 21.5 20.9 20.6 8 3 0
Table 10. PM10 projections to 2010 based on emissions reductions by
area type forecast in the combined scenario (gravimetric units)
Annual mean ( Days above 50 Area Type Scenario 1996 1997 1998 1999 1996 1997 1998 1999
Birmingham Centre 4 NAEI 20.5 18.9 20.0 18.4 14 1 7 1
Baseline 20.7 19.1 20.3 18.6 14 1 7 1
Combined 20.4 18.9 19.9 18.3 13 1 7 1
Scenario A 20.4 18.8 19.9 18.3 13 1 7 1
Scenario B 20.4 18.9 19.9 18.3 13 1 7 1
Scenario C 20.5 18.9 20.0 18.4 13 1 7 1
Scenario D
Scenario E 20.5 18.9 20.0 18.4 13 1 7 1
Bristol Centre 6 NAEI 20.7 21.1 21.3 21.4 8 4 5 2
Baseline 21.1 21.6 21.6 21.7 8 4 5 2
Combined 20.8 21.3 21.4 21.5 8 4 5 2
Scenario A 20.7 21.2 21.3 21.4 8 4 5 2
Scenario B 20.8 21.3 21.4 21.5 8 4 5 2
Scenario C 20.8 21.3 21.4 21.5 8 4 5 2
Scenario D 20.8 21.3 21.4 21.5 8 4 5 2
Scenario E 20.9 21.3 21.4 21.5 8 4 5 2
Bury Roadside 5 NAEI 24.5 24.8 23.7 9 7 7
Baseline 24.8 25.0 23.8 9 7 7
Combined 24.0 24.4 23.3 9 6 6
Scenario A 24.0 24.4 23.3 9 6 6
Scenario B 24.0 24.4 23.3 9 6 6
Scenario C 24.1 24.4 23.3 9 6 6
Scenario D
Scenario E 24.1 24.4 23.3 9 6 6
Camden Roadside 2 NAEI 29.1 25.5 26.4 21 4 8
Baseline 29.3 25.7 26.5 22 4 8
Combined 28.2 24.9 25.6 19 4 7
Liverpool Centre 4 NAEI 21.8 21.7 22.1 20.8 11 7 5 1
Baseline 22.0 22.0 22.4 20.9 11 8 5 1
Combined 21.7 21.6 22.0 20.7 11 7 5 1
Scenario A 21.7 21.6 22.0 20.7 11 7 5 1
Scenario B 21.7 21.6 22.0 20.7 11 7 5 1
Scenario C 21.7 21.6 22.1 20.7 11 7 5 1
Scenario D
Scenario E 21.7 21.7 22.1 20.7 11 7 5 1
London Bloomsbury 1 NAEI 25.0 23.2 23.0 21.9 13 13 3 3
Baseline 25.0 23.3 23.0 22.0 13 13 3 3
Combined 24.3 22.4 22.4 21.3 12 10 3 3
Haringey Roadside 3 NAEI 23.2 22.0 22.1 10 6 2
Baseline 23.6 22.3 22.4 11 6 4
Combined 23.1 21.9 22.1 10 6 2
Manchester Piccadilly 4 NAEI 21.2 20.7 20.4 20.6 10 2 7 0
Baseline 21.4 21.0 20.6 20.8 10 2 8 0
Combined 21.1 20.6 20.3 20.6 9 2 7 0
Scenario A 21.1 20.6 20.3 20.6 9 2 7 0
Scenario B 21.1 20.6 20.3 20.6 9 2 7 0
Scenario C 21.1 20.7 20.3 20.6 9 2 7 0
Scenario D
Scenario E 18.4 18.8 18.3 16.9 9 0 2 3
Marylebone Road 1 NAEI 21.1 20.7 20.3 20.6 10 2 7 0
Baseline 30.0 33.2 13 21
Combined 28.3 31.0 12 18
Newcastle Centre 5 NAEI 18.5 18.8 18.3 16.9 9 0 2 3
Baseline 18.7 19.0 18.5 17.0 9 1 2 3
Combined 18.4 18.7 18.2 16.8 9 0 2 3
Scenario A 18.4 18.7 18.2 16.8 9 0 2 3
Scenario B 18.4 18.7 18.2 16.8 9 0 2 3
Scenario C 18.4 18.7 18.3 16.9 9 0 2 3
Scenario D
Scenario E 18.4 18.8 18.3 16.9 9 0 2 3
Rochester 11 NAEI 19.5 19.7 18.3 17.0 9 5 1 1
Baseline 19.5 19.6 18.3 17.0 9 5 1 1
Combined 19.5 19.6 18.3 17.0 9 5 1 1
Sutton Roadside 3 NAEI 21.6 21.0 20.7 8 3 0
Baseline 21.9 21.3 20.9 8 3 0
Combined 21.5 20.9 20.6 8 3 0
Table 9. PM10 projections to 2010 based on emissions reductions by
area type forecast in the Constant motoring costs scenario (gravimetric units)
Chapter 5
Chapter 7
Report and site prepared by the National Environmental Technology Centre, part of AEA Technology, on behalf of the UK Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions