1,3-butadiene projections for comparison with the NAQS objective

Table 4 shows a comparison of the number of urban major road links projected to exceed the NAQS objective for 1,3-butadiene of 1 ppb as a maximum running annual mean. We have taken a threshold for annual mean concentration of 0.7 ppb to represent a risk of exceeding a maximum running annual mean concentration of 1 ppb. This takes into account the different between annual and maximum running annual means and also provides an approximate safety factor of 20 % for uncertainties in the mapping methods (Stedman and Dore, 1998).

Table 4. The number of urban major road links projected to exceed the NAQS objective for 1,3-butadiene (7508 road links examined).

1996 NAEI

1997 NAEI

Year

number of road links

max. conc. (ppb)

number of road links

max. conc. (ppb)

1996

1228

2.1

1228

2.1

1997

876

1.9

751

1.8

1998

493

1.6

403

1.6

1999

249

1.4

191

1.4

2000

104

1.2

75

1.2

2001

30

1.1

25

1

2002

12

0.9

10

0.9

2003

1

0.8

1

0.8

2004

0

0.6

0

0.7

2005

0

0.5

0

0.6

Projected concentrations in 2000, 2001 and 2002 are slightly lower for the 1997 NAEI based emissions estimates. Projected concentrations in 2003 and 2005 are similar for the two different emissions projections and are within the objective for all except one road in 2003.

Benzene projections         Comparison with EU Limit Value

Report and site prepared by the National Environmental Technology Centre, part of AEA Technology, on behalf of the UK Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions