Comparison of mapped estimated with the proposed limit value

emissions projections

The emissions projections used in the mapping work are given in Table 1. Road traffic emissions of benzene are expected to fall to a small fraction of their 1996 value by 2009 as a result of current policies.

Table 1. Benzene emission projections used in the mapping work (relative to 1996)

year

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

background

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.71

0.62

0.54

0.47

0.40

roadside

1.00

0.89

0.78

0.68

0.58

0.49

0.41

0.34

year

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

background

0.35

0.31

0.28

0.26

0.24

0.24

0.23

roadside

0.28

0.23

0.20

0.18

0.16

0.15

0.15

 

background locations

Maps of estimated annual mean background benzene concentrations for 1996 and 2009 are given in Figures 1 and 2. Concentrations in 1996 were greater than 1.542 ppb in the centres of several cities, such as London, Birmingham, Leicester, Manchester and Liverpool. Concentrations in all areas in 2009 are predicted to be well within the proposed limit value. The maximum estimated concentration is in central London and is 2.6 ppb in 1996 and 0.6 ppb in 2009.

Roadside locations

Figures 3 and 4 shows that the estimated roadside benzene concentrations in 1996 and 2009 are expected to be considerably higher than in background locations. Table 2 gives a detailed analysis of the estimated roadside benzene concentrations in all the years from 1996 to 2010. Very few road links are expected to have concentrations higher than 1.542 ppb by 2006 and very few are expected to have concentrations greater than the limit value with a 20% safety margin (1.234 ppb) by 2008. Table 3 shows that the majority of the 15 links with the highest estimated benzene concentrations are in central London. Figure 5 shows the road links in this area in more detail.

Table 2. Estimated annual mean roadside benzene concentrations (ppb) for urban built up roads (7508 road links examined)

year

number of links < 1.234 ppb*

number of links 1.234 - 1.542 ppb**

number of links >= 1.542 ppb**

highest conc. (ppb)

2nd highest conc. (ppb)

3rd highest conc. (ppb)

1996

1798

930

4780

7.7

7.0

6.8

1997

2250

1073

4185

6.9

6.2

6.1

1998

2805

1258

3445

6.1

5.5

5.3

1999

3502

1299

2707

5.3

4.8

4.7

2000

4378

1250

1880

4.6

4.1

4.0

2001

5227

1135

1146

3.9

3.5

3.4

2002

6070

876

562

3.3

3.0

2.9

2003

6772

541

195

2.7

2.5

2.4

2004

7220

246

42

2.3

2.1

2.1

2005

7424

69

15

1.9

1.8

1.7

2006

7482

24

2

1.7

1.6

1.5

2007

7493

14

1

1.6

1.4

1.4

2008

7504

4

0

1.4

1.4

1.3

2009

7506

2

0

1.3

1.2

1.2

2010

7507

1

0

1.3

1.2

1.2

 

* equivalent to limit value of 5 m gm-3 with a 20% safety margin (or a limit value of 4 m gm-3 with a no safety margin)

** equivalent to limit value of 5 m gm-3 with a no safety margin

 

Table 3. Fifteen major road links with the highest estimated annual mean benzene concentrations (ppb)

rank

id

conc. in 2007 (ppb)

road number

location

road name

1

17639

1.6

A4202

Mayfair

Park Lane

2

36119

1.4

A4

Hammersmith

Talgarth Road

3

28505

1.4

A4

West Kensington

West Cromwell Road

4

48251

1.4

A501

Paddington

Marylebone Road

5

36109

1.4

A3

Kennington

Kennington Park Road

6

57537

1.4

A4

Knightsbridge

Knightsbridge

7

48489

1.3

A46

Leicester

Burleys Way

8

6121

1.3

A4

Hammersmith

Hammersmith Flyover

9

38466

1.3

A4

South Kensington

Cromwell Road

10

18496

1.3

A4

Hammersmith

Great West Road

11

27087

1.3

A406

Hendon

North Circular Road

12

18468

1.3

A3211

Blackfriars

Embankment

13

46120

1.3

A501

Baker Street

Marylebone Road

14

46121

1.3

A4

Hammersmith

Great West Road

15

47245

1.2

A501

Marylebone

Marylebone Road

 

Mapping Methods          Conclusions

Report and site prepared by the National Environmental Technology Centre, part of AEA Technology, on behalf of the UK Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions