Comparison of mapped estimated with the proposed limit value
The emissions projections used in the mapping work are given in Table 1. Road traffic emissions of benzene are expected to fall to a small fraction of their 1996 value by 2009 as a result of current policies.
Table 1. Benzene emission projections used in the mapping work (relative to 1996)
year |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
background |
1.00 |
0.90 |
0.80 |
0.71 |
0.62 |
0.54 |
0.47 |
0.40 |
roadside |
1.00 |
0.89 |
0.78 |
0.68 |
0.58 |
0.49 |
0.41 |
0.34 |
year |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
|
background |
0.35 |
0.31 |
0.28 |
0.26 |
0.24 |
0.24 |
0.23 |
|
roadside |
0.28 |
0.23 |
0.20 |
0.18 |
0.16 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
Maps of estimated annual mean background benzene concentrations for 1996 and 2009 are given in Figures 1 and 2. Concentrations in 1996 were greater than 1.542 ppb in the centres of several cities, such as London, Birmingham, Leicester, Manchester and Liverpool. Concentrations in all areas in 2009 are predicted to be well within the proposed limit value. The maximum estimated concentration is in central London and is 2.6 ppb in 1996 and 0.6 ppb in 2009.
Figures 3 and 4 shows that the estimated roadside benzene concentrations in 1996 and 2009 are expected to be considerably higher than in background locations. Table 2 gives a detailed analysis of the estimated roadside benzene concentrations in all the years from 1996 to 2010. Very few road links are expected to have concentrations higher than 1.542 ppb by 2006 and very few are expected to have concentrations greater than the limit value with a 20% safety margin (1.234 ppb) by 2008. Table 3 shows that the majority of the 15 links with the highest estimated benzene concentrations are in central London. Figure 5 shows the road links in this area in more detail.
Table 2. Estimated annual mean roadside benzene concentrations (ppb) for urban built up roads (7508 road links examined)
year |
number of links < 1.234 ppb* |
number of links 1.234 - 1.542 ppb** |
number of links >= 1.542 ppb** |
highest conc. (ppb) |
2nd highest conc. (ppb) |
3rd highest conc. (ppb) |
1996 |
1798 |
930 |
4780 |
7.7 |
7.0 |
6.8 |
1997 |
2250 |
1073 |
4185 |
6.9 |
6.2 |
6.1 |
1998 |
2805 |
1258 |
3445 |
6.1 |
5.5 |
5.3 |
1999 |
3502 |
1299 |
2707 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
2000 |
4378 |
1250 |
1880 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
2001 |
5227 |
1135 |
1146 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
2002 |
6070 |
876 |
562 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
2003 |
6772 |
541 |
195 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2004 |
7220 |
246 |
42 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2005 |
7424 |
69 |
15 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
2006 |
7482 |
24 |
2 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
2007 |
7493 |
14 |
1 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
2008 |
7504 |
4 |
0 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
2009 |
7506 |
2 |
0 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
2010 |
7507 |
1 |
0 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
* equivalent to limit value of 5 m gm-3 with a 20% safety margin (or a limit value of 4 m gm-3 with a no safety margin)
** equivalent to limit value of 5 m gm-3 with a no safety margin
Table 3. Fifteen major road links with the highest estimated annual mean benzene concentrations (ppb)
rank |
id |
conc. in 2007 (ppb) |
road number |
location |
road name |
1 |
17639 |
1.6 |
A4202 |
Mayfair |
Park Lane |
2 |
36119 |
1.4 |
A4 |
Hammersmith |
Talgarth Road |
3 |
28505 |
1.4 |
A4 |
West Kensington |
West Cromwell Road |
4 |
48251 |
1.4 |
A501 |
Paddington |
Marylebone Road |
5 |
36109 |
1.4 |
A3 |
Kennington |
Kennington Park Road |
6 |
57537 |
1.4 |
A4 |
Knightsbridge |
Knightsbridge |
7 |
48489 |
1.3 |
A46 |
Leicester |
Burleys Way |
8 |
6121 |
1.3 |
A4 |
Hammersmith |
Hammersmith Flyover |
9 |
38466 |
1.3 |
A4 |
South Kensington |
Cromwell Road |
10 |
18496 |
1.3 |
A4 |
Hammersmith |
Great West Road |
11 |
27087 |
1.3 |
A406 |
Hendon |
North Circular Road |
12 |
18468 |
1.3 |
A3211 |
Blackfriars |
Embankment |
13 |
46120 |
1.3 |
A501 |
Baker Street |
Marylebone Road |
14 |
46121 |
1.3 |
A4 |
Hammersmith |
Great West Road |
15 |
47245 |
1.2 |
A501 |
Marylebone |
Marylebone Road |