4. Results - Costs


4.1 Overall costs

Cost data for each of the scenarios are shown in Table 5.

Table 5. Costs of emission reductions for the UK (£million/year) arising from movement from the UKREF scenario to the scenarios shown.

Scenario

SO2

NOx

VOC

NH3*

Total

WGS31c 34 9 18

0

61

J1 61 9 64

11 – 24

145 – 158

H1 61 9 435

11 - 24

516 – 529

*Abatement costs for ammonia emissions are shown as a range because of uncertainty about the acceptability of urea substitution, the higher end of the range assuming that it is not adopted.

For SO2 all of the scenarios can be met through the fitting of wet flue gas desulphurisation (WFGD) to coal fired power stations. However, it should be noted that this is based on the assumption that existing UK power stations can be fitted with WFGD, which can operate at high efficiency typical of state-of-the-art systems (95%). This may not be possible if power stations are operated at low load factors. In 1997, UK coal fired power stations were operated at an average 45% annual load factor and the trend in recent years has been steadily downward. If the SO2 cost curve is modified so that the efficiency of the WFGD is 75%, a value more typical of stations operating at low load factors, the cost per tonne of SO2 abated by WFGD rises significantly, and the use of low sulphur coal is then a more cost–effective option for UK power stations. However, this is not the most cost-effective abatement option when all sources of SO2 are taken into account, and other measures are required in order to meet the various emissions targets. This is illustrated in Table 6, where the measures required to meet each of the specified targets are listed in order of cost-effectiveness (marginal cost per tonne abated) and, therefore, in order of their applications to the system as a whole. Costs also rise above those shown in Table 5, to £43 million for WSG31b, £92 million for J1 and £94 million for H1. The control measures required to achieve reductions in NOx emissions are shown in Table 7 and those required for VOC in Table 8. The VOC reductions include measures that would affect small businesses. If the control measures which affect these sectors are removed from the cost curve, the cost of reaching the WSG31b scenario is not affected, but the cost of reaching J1 rises above that shown in Table 5 to £71 million and H1 cannot be reached.

Table 6. Measures used to achieve reductions in SO2 emissions assuming WFGD can be operated at 75% efficiency only.
Scenario Sector Measure Cumulative emission (ktonnes) Cumulative Cost (£ million) Marginal cost (£/tonne)
WGS31c Industrial processes Industrial boilers Power stations burning coal Various methods, 40% efficiency Low sulphur coal Low sulphur coal 709 677 625 22 30 43 233 245 245
J1 Power stations burning coal Residential combustion Residential combustion Industrial boilers Fuel conversion industry Oil fired power stations Low sulphur coal Low sulphur coal Low sulphur coke Low sulphur coke Low sulphur coke Low sulphur fuel oil 622 608 605 604 603 602 44 47 48 48 49 49 245 260 260 262 262 288
  Industrial boilers Residential combustion Shipping Fuel conversion Process industry Process industry Power stations Fuel conversion Off-road transport Shipping Fuel conversion – coal Low sulphur fuel oil Low sulphur fuel oil Low sulphur fuel oil Low sulphur fuel oil Various methods, 70% efficiency Various methods, 80% efficiency Low sulphur gas oil Low sulphur gas oil Low sulphur DERV Low sulphur gas oil Limestone injection 593 588 586 566 536 521 521 521 521 500 499 52 53 54 59 70 83 83 83 83 104 105 288 288 288 288 366 837 1029 1029 1029 1029 1127
H1 Fuel conversion – coke Fuel conversion – fuel oil Wet flue gas desulphurisation Wet flue gas desulphurisation 498 497 106 108 1260 1647


Table 7. Measures used to achieve reductions in NOx emissions
Scenario Sector Measure Cumulative emission (ktonnes) Cumulative Cost (£ million) Marginal cost (£/tonne)
All scenarios Fuel conversion Industrial furnaces Combustion modifications Combustion modifications 1182 1181 9 9 150 243


Table 8. Measures used to achieve reductions in VOC emissions.
Scenario Sector Measure Cumulative emission (ktonnes) Cumulative Cost (£ million) Marginal cost (£/tonne)
WGS31c Other industrial solvent use Domestic wood fired boilers Refineries Oil production and distribution New agrochemical formulations New appliances Covered oil-water separators and flaring Vapour balancing during loading 1299 1297 1254 1200 0 0 8 18 0 116 179 183
J1 Oil production and distribution Domestic coal fired boilers Other industrial solvent usea Industrial adhesivesa Refineries Dry cleaninga Organic chemicals manufacture Off-road machinery Motorcycles Industrial paintsa Vapour balancing during loading New appliances Control of seed oil extraction & leather coating Housekeeping & substitution Incineration Conventional closed circuit machines Incineration Oxidation catalysts Oxidation catalysts Substitution 1193 1181 1179 1177 1173 1172 1139 1127 1108 1100 19 22 22 23 24 25 39 46 57 64 218 271 276 319 364 439 600 600 803
H1 Industrial paintsa Rubber processinga Retail decorative paints Offset printing Trade decorative paints Degreasing (new installations)a Publication gravure Oil production and distribution Petrol distribution, stage 1 Vehicle refinishinga Degreasing (new installations)a Organic chemicals manufacture Dry cleaning (new installations)a Dry cleaninga Domestic solvent use Packaging printing (new installations) Packaging printing Oil production and distribution Organic chemicals storage Degreasing (new installations)a Degreasinga Screen printinga Industrial adhesivesa Screen printing (new installations)a Wood preservation (new installations)a Automobile coating (new installations) Retail decorative paints Substitution End-of-pipe abatement Substitution with waterborne paints Incineration Substitution with waterborne paints Carbon adsorption Enclosure and carbon adsorption Minimisation of venting Single stage vapour recovery Substitution Conveyorised degreasing with carbon adsorption Monthly leak detection and repair New generation closed circuit machines New generation closed circuit machines Reformulation of products Incineration End-of-pipe abatement Minimisation of flaring Single stage vapour recovery unit Water based systems or plasma processes Water based systems and conveyorised degreasing Enclosure and end-of-pipe abatement Incineration Enclosure and end-of-pipe abatement Carbon adsorption End-of-pipe abatement Substitution with waterborne and high solids paints 1092 1090 1085 1084 1081 1079 1078 1063 1062 1062 1056 1053 1051 1050 1015 1015 1014 991 990 980 976 976 973 972 966 964 964 71 72 78 79 83 86 86 108 110 110 124 131 137 138 237 238 242 323 328 364 379 380 395 398 426 433 437 803 1000 1111 1230 1250 1281 1361 1407 1905 2067 2167 2477 2759 2759 2843 3088 3415 3502 3865 3896 4017 4019 4110 4466 4571 4689 4848
a - sector includes small businesses

4.2 Regional costs
The regional allocation of emissions for each scenario is shown in Table 9 to Table 12 below.

Table 9. Regional allocation of emissions of NOx (kt)
Scenario

England

Scotland

Wales

N. Ireland

UKREF 992 102 59 32
WGS31c//J1/H1 987 101 58 32


Table 10. Regional allocation of emissions of SO2 (kt)
Scenario

England

Scotland

Wales

N. Ireland

UKREF 602 57 100 25
WGS31c 468 43 94 20
J1 362 32 89 16
H1 360 32 89 16


Table 11. Regional allocation of emissions of VOC (kt)
Scenario

England

Scotland

Wales

N. Ireland

Offshore

UKREF 883 207 55 26 129
WGS31c 852 184 47 26 92
J1 773 174 43 23 87
H1 689 155 39 21 61


Table 12. Regional allocation of emissions of NH3 (kt)
Scenario

England

Scotland

Wales

N. Ireland

Reference/WGS31c 202 42 24 30
J1/H1 182 36 20 26


The regional split of costs for each scenario is shown in Table 13. The cost ranges shown in the Table represent uncertainty with respect to ammonia abatement measures, in particular whether or not urea substitution will be allowed. This has a substantial influence on the costs in Northern Ireland and Wales under the J1 scenario.

Table 13. Costs by region (£million/year) arising from movement from the UKREF scenario to the scenarios shown.
Scenario

England

N. Ireland

Scotland

Wales

Offshore

WGS31c

41

1

8

3

7

J1

108 – 116

4 – 6

16 – 18

7 – 9

8

H1

339 - 347

11 – 13

68 - 71

19 - 21

77



Chapter 3          Chapter 5
Report and site prepared by the National Environmental Technology Centre, part of AEA Technology, on behalf of the UK Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions